First a definition:
Kosmas Candidate- (slang)- An acceptable Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives running the same year as a President who attracts large support from minority and young voters and, can turn a right leaning district blue. Named after former Congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas who defeated longtime House Rep Tom Feeney in 2008.
This is a real threat to sitting Republican House members, especially here in Central Florida where we’ve an up for grabs I4 corridor. Just like the 2008 wave that sent Kosmas, Grayson, and other Democrats to Washington, there is the risk of this happening all over again and there could be turnover in some of the Florida House races as well.
Now in fairness, Feeney was the subject of controversy during his time in the house and Kosmas had a long history in the state legislature but, in Washington, Kosmas felt the pressure, especially after switching her vote to a “yes” on the affordable care act being debated right now in Washington. She was a recluse for much of the second half of her term and was defeated by current house member Sandy Adams in 2010.
Still, it could happen again. Where is the science? Let me throw some knowledge your way.
There will be a strong turnout from minority and youth voters. They’re here to vote for a President and often aren’t up to speed on the on the issues surrounding the House races. They tend to vote Democrat and if outreach isn’t done correctly they’ll circle in the name with (DEM) next to it every time.
Okay, this is the part where I’m going to field some fake questions.
You mentioned outreach. If grassroots efforts are done correctly can we shift some of these races? Sure but, you’re going to have to concentrate on your particular contest. Unless Mitt Romney makes picks a game changing VP candidate like Marco Rubio, it’s going to be a tough sell at the top of the ballot. Don’t believe me? I’ll bet you Ten Thousand bucks.
Are there any Kosmas candidates running so far? One in Central Florida. Heather Beaven is running in Florida CD 6 against Craig Miller, and a handfull of others. John Mica easily defeated her in 2010 but, this is a different ballgame with the President running for re-election. It would still be difficult for Beaven (or someone else) to take votes from the older community on the coast but it’s happened before and she’s better on the stump than Kosmas.
Any more advice? Be lean and mean in your primary. Save as much as you can for the general election. Try to avoid a long drown out family fight. I’m talking to team John Mica and team Sandy Adams.
If you’re a Republican reader of this blog, it’s going to be about mainstream and social media, as well as a strong grassroots game. Democrats, you already know all of this and while sharing a ballot with the President will help some, you still want to run someone that can handle the pressure in D.C.