No matter what happens with Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama in November, whatever happens in tough congressional races like Long vs. Grayson or West vs. Murphy, whatever happens with Connie Mack vs. Bill Nelson…
Tallahassee will belong to the Republicans.
Yep, super majority baby. R’s can strut around knowing that their recruitment efforts are stellar and they got candidates days (or would it be cycles) to run in districts throughout the state. Oh, there will be the traditionally safe territories for Democrats. Like here in Orlando, where Bruce Antone is already planning for his return to the state capitol or down south in some of the areas surrounding Miami where other D’s can stay competitive. Democrats have difficulty finding candidates to compete for D.C seats let alone Tally.
That trend could be in danger.
Don’t get me wrong it would take a massive political event to break the conservative majority in Tallahassee but there are scratches in the armor, scratches become cracks, cracks become breaks.
There was the probably loss of State Rep. Mike Horner‘s seat. After his mention in a criminal investigation, Horner will withdraw from the race and whoever is picked to replace him will have an uphill battle against Eileen Game. The voters will have to bubble in the circle with Horner’s name next to it.
There was no way for anyone to see that coming. Some of the following examples? They could have been prevented.
There is State House 48 where Victor Torres (no relation) walked right into office. No primary. No Republican to meet him in the general.
With the resources RPOF has at it’s disposal. That should not have happened. There are about a dozen other examples where Democrats have gotten elected with no partisan opposition. That shouldn’t happen in any district, with any party. Don’t think it’s worth it? Ask Game. You never know what will happen.
There is the Chris Dorworth vs. Mike Clelland race. Dorworth has more bad press than the Kardashian/Humphries wedding. The future speaker of the house has a tough race ahead and he had a primary which, for someone lined up for leadership is very unusual.
Redistricting has also caused some tough match-up. Scott Plakon vs. Karen Castor Dentel becomes a must win, if anything, for morale reasons. There is the Marco Pena vs. Joe Saunders “Battle for UCF” race and a Bob Brooks vs. Linda Stewart contest will both be competitive.
It’s not just the house. In the Florida Senate Dorothy Hukill vs Frank Bruno has everyone writing checks.
All of the candidates have to walk through a hurricane of Rick Scott comparisons. The unpopular Governor has been invisible so far in election season and will have to stay that way.
The good news? Republicans could lose all of those seats and still have a strong majority.
The bad news? If they’re asleep. They might.
They shouldn’t take the chance. Florida Republicans need to walk that extra neighborhood, spend an extra hour on the phones, write one more $25 dollar check.
2012 might dent the Republican armor in Tallahassee, it’s going to be up to them to dictate how bit that dent will be.