Eric Eisnaugle Rolls in House 44 Special Election GOP primary

As expected Former State Representative Eric Eisnaugle moved one step closer to going back to Tallahassee this evening, by defeating former schoolboard member Vicky Bell in the GOP House 44 primary.

Instant Analysis: Was there really any question? While Bell’s education knowledge and personal desire to serve was admirable, she never had the campaign infrastructure in place to compete with a worker like Eisnaugle. No website. No money. No noticeable grassroots operation. I believe she got some bad advice. She can still be effective in the situation. We’ll see what’s next for her.

Eisnaugle ran like he was in a tough contest. Healthy group of walkers. An embarrassment of riches in the campaign warchest and high name ID from his previous stint in the house all had a lot to do with this win.

What’s Next? We move to the general next month where Democrat and Small Business Owner Shaun Raja waits. Unfortunately for the blue team in the Windermere/Winter Garden District, he hasn’t done anything to make politicos believe he’ll be any more effective than Bell. We’ll see what he does over the next couple of days to change that.

Eisnaugle Group

Congress Florida District 7 Race 2014 – Frank’s Notes

Florida Congress District 7 Changeable 3-9-14

 

These are my professional notes on the race for Florida’s 7th Congressional District, ordered from most recent and working backwards.

3-30-14: The Mica campaign has announced they have qualified by petition.

3-30-14: John Mica hosted a BBQ for the YRS in Orange and Seminole County. This is an area where he has a sharpe advantage. While they can’t officially endorse in a primary, many of them were seen in photos from the event and it was crowded.

3-26-14: Col Smith put out this fundraising goal on his FB page.

3-25=14: Col Smith pushed out his position on Key Issues. You can read them HERE

3-9-14: Zechariah Blanchard reached out to me on this blog and sent me his digital campaign stuff. Slides and tracker updated.

3-9-14: Col. Smith spent his Saturday meeting with voters at the Taste of Oviedo.

3-6-14:  NOTE OPENED

INTRODUCTION:

The race for Florida’s 7th Congressional District features an 11 term incumbent and former Chairman of the House Transportation Committee against a trio of Republican primary challengers and one Democrat in the district which consists of areas in Volusia, Seminole, and Orange Counties.

John Mica has been in Congress a long time and has no plans of stepping down anytime soon. He’s got a long list of legislative achievements and a loyal following in the 7th. In 2012, he had to defeat a fellow sitting Republican in a regrettable political fight that had to take place after redistricting. He triumphed and has continued staying outfront of moving transportation here in Central Florida. He continues to push for rail projects like Sunrail and development of motor travel in the area.

These projects cost money and the debate over whether certain projects are needed and how much spending will be needed usually draws Mica some primary opponents. This time is no different.

Former Marine Pilot David Smith has been adamant. He is not running against John Mica or anybody else, but for the people of the 7th district. He says that he was approached about running a couple of years back when there was buzz that Mica could retire. He was against the Paul Ryan-Patty Murray Budget deal that lifted spending limits while restoring allocated funds to certain areas of defense and believes no one will ride Sunrail. He also wants more programs for Veterans improved and is for reeling in Government spending and waste. He’s been campaigning aggressively but has been keeping a positive tone to his message. He understands that he’s fishing out of a pool of voters that have been  local to Mica for sometime.

There are two other Republicans that have filed. Alan Azcona and Zechariah Blanchard.  Neither have made any noise up to this point and have no online campaign identity yet. I’ll keep an eye on them for you.

Democrat Wesley Neuman has the tough task of being the Democrat running in an area where one hasn’t been competitive for years. He’ll need a major political event to shift the public opinion of voters in the district to turn D7 blue.

 

 

 

 

Here’s What the Grayson Domestic Violence Allegations mean in the CD9 Race

Earlier today, the Orlando Sentinel (that story HERE) reported that Congressman Alan Graysons‘s wife Lolita, who he is currently divorcing, got a temporary protective injunction granted amidst allegations that he shoved her during a dispute this past weekend. While these are allegations they carry a stigma that will follow the controversial House Representative, all the way to his reelection bid in November.

So what does this mean in the Congressional District 9 race?

It confirms what you and I have known this entire time. Alan Grayson’s worst enemy is Alan Grayson.

Add this to the long list of unforced errors hes already made.

The announcement of his divorce, the scam artist that took 15 mil out of his pocket, the fundraising message comparing the tea party to the Ku Klux Klan. Now this.

Do any of the 3 Republicans currently running against Grayson touch it? Depends.

This is one of those topics that can poison the attacker as much as the target. Its a subject you don’t want coming directly from your candidate because it could turn off the voters if it’s not handled correctly. Best to let the media do it’s job and inform the voters their way.

SuperPacs and other 3rd party organizations? It could be fair game.

There is history though.

You’ll recall Grayson accused his general election opponent of domestic abuse back in 2012 during a tiger bay debate and it played very poorly. He also got in a face to face dispute in a Perkins, after he crashed a Republican Executive Meeting back in 2010, that was a breath away from becoming physical.

So, what it means is that it’s another nasty mark against a controversial elected official, who’s behavior in the media, allows these accusations to hold weight.

Could this be the “Taliban Dan” type of story that puts Grayson’s reelection chances which he once called a “shoo-in” into jeopardy?

Yes. I think so. He can’t keep doing these things. If this story gets nasty, yes. He’s very vulnerable.

These kind of headlines, while personal, are unfortunately relevant. This story will be used against Grayson to hurt him and his campaign.

But beleive me. Grayson wouldn’t hesitate to swing this story against one of his opponents, if the roles were reversed.

Alan Grayson pro

Moore sets Campaign Kick-Off for Orange Commission District 2 Derby

Eatonville City Councilman Alvin Moore has announced the details for his Campaign Kick-Off in his bid to become the next Commissioner of District 2 here in Orange County.

It will also be a re-election celebration for Moore. He was recently reelected without opposition in Eatonville.

He’s one of the many candidates vying to replaced termed out incumbent Fred Brummer. His opponents include State Representative Bryan Nelson, Attorney Greg Jackson, Corrections Department Official Patricia Rumph, former OCPS Official Prince Brown and Yvette Sykes.

Moore is currently number 2 in the money chase for the contest behind Nelson and at this point is the state lawmaker’s main competition. He’s also got consultants that have recently won big races in the county and a growing campaign operation.

It still is a wide open contest however, and if there is one level of politics where miles walked can beat dollars banked, it’s these contests held at the municipal levels.

You can find more information on the graphic below.

Alvin Moore Kick-Off

Cortes gets Endorsements from Entire Casselberry City Commission in Florida House 30 Contest

Business Owner and Longwood Commissioner Bob Cortes announced endorsements from all 5 members of the Casselberry City Commission today, in his bid win the Florida House 30 race this year.

In a statement, Casselberry Mayor Charlene Glancy had this to say.

“Bob Cortes has a deep respect for the families and businesses in our community. He understands that by limiting the power that government has on our daily lives we increase the choices for hard working Floridians, concerned parents, and ambitious students. He is the right choice for House District 30.”

Here are some of Cortes’ remarks about his latest endorsements.

“If all public servants were like Mayor Glancy, we would be solving community problems even faster.”She and the entire Casselberry Commission have set an example with their leadership of one of the most impressively thriving communities in Florida, even as we recover from recession. It’s an honor and a privilege to receive these endorsements.”

He adds these nods to the dozens of endorsements from sitting State Representatives, municipal elected officials, and local leaders.

Cortes is in a very competitive GOP primary with fellow Business owner Scott Sturgill. While Cortes has the support from many elected officials, Sturgill has loyalty from many of the local Republican opinion leaders on the ground. It’s setting up to be one of the more interesting primaries at the State House level in Florida.

The winner would go on to face Incumbent Democrat and School Teacher Karen Castor-Dentel in the general election in what is going to be a tough fight for the swing district that consists of parts of Orange and Seminole Counties.

Florida House 30 Changeable 1-14

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