Today, Gravis Marketing released its second Florida tracking poll. In 2018, Florida will be home to marquee races for the Governorship, a U.S. Senate Seat, as well as a host of competitive Congressional races. There are still many undecided voters for both the primary and general election ballot tests.
Since the previous Gravis Marketing poll, the Democratic Gubernatorial primary has seen some tightening into what looks to be a three-candidate toss-up. Former Congresswoman Gwen Graham sees her support drop from 18% to 12% in this new poll. Graham is now in a tie with former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine who had his support double from 6% to 12%. Tallahassee Mayor, Andrew Gillum, fell from 12% in second place to 9% in third place. Undecided voters are now at 63%, up from 60% in the previous Gravis poll.
The race has tightened on the Republican side as well with Florida Commissioner of Agriculture, Adam Putnam, falling from 23% to 18%. Congressman Ron DeSantis moves from 12% to 16% into a Margin of Error tie with Putnam. As they did on the Democratic side, Republican undecided voters increased from 60% to 61%.
Democrats have a chance to win the Gubernatorial race in Florida in 2018 for the first time since 1994. Adam Putnam currently edges out both Graham (32.5%-29.2%) and Gillum (30.4%-29.7%) in a two-person race. Florida Speaker of the House Richard Corcoran trails both Graham (32.8%-23.6%) and Gillum (31.6%-22.7%). Democrats caught a break in January when personal injury attorney John Morgan publicly ruled out a run for Governor as either a Democrat or an Independent.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson still holds a lead over his likely opponent, incumbent Governor Rick Scott. Nelson’s lead shrunk a bit from the previous poll from 44.2%-38.9% to 43.7%-39.8%. The closeness of this race likely depends heavily upon the political environment. Nelson’s advantage likely grows down the line with a likely screen. If Scott foregoes a Senate run, Republicans could turn to Congressman Tom Rooney who announced on Monday that he would not be seeking reelection. In a statement on Monday, Rooney stated “I look forward to serving Florida again in the future in a different capacity.” Rooney’s statement appears to hint that he would be interested in running for a different office. There is also the chance that one of the Republican Gubernatorial candidates could change directions to run for Senate as what happened in Ohio.
Trump’s favorability numbers have improved in this poll from a previous 39%-53% split to a current 41%-49% split. Governor Rick Scott also saw his numbers improve from 42%-36% to 43%-35%. The generic ballot narrowed from a 42%-35% Democratic advantage to a 39%-36% Democratic advantage. The new tax reform law has a 37%-39% approval split. The big change on this was the disapproval number falling from 46% while the approval number increasing from 36%.