Gravis Marketing has released a new poll of North Dakota registered voters conducted February 21st-24th, 2018. The poll was conducted exclusively with an online panel due to North Dakota’s laws prohibiting ADAD calls (“automated dialing announcing device” calls, or also known as “robocalls”).
- North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum’s job approval is at 40.6%-15.1%
- Tom Campbell leads the GOP primary race for North Dakota’ vacant Congressional seat with 28%
- Heidi Heitkamp holds a 42.7%-40.3% lead over Congressman Kevin Cramer
The opportunity for Democrats to expand the map in 2018 will begin with maintaining where they have already expanded the map in previous cycles. Heidi Heitkamp won a narrow 50.2%-49.3% in 2012, but her support wasn’t just centered in a couple areas. Heitkamp carried 28 out of North Dakota’s 47 state legislative districts. Heitkamp’s opponent, Kevin Kramer, has had some issues with making controversial statement’s (including defending Sean Spicer’s Holocaust comments and criticizing Democratic female lawmakers as being “poorly dressed.”) Some have expressed concerns that Kevin Cramer could be a repeat of Rick Berg’s 2012 Senate campaign.
Heitkamp benefits from strong fundraising numbers and a favorable national environment. She will likely benefit from a likely voter screen once we approach election day. The obstacle for Heitkamp will be the heavy partisan lean of a state that elected Donald Trump by 35.73% in 2016. The key to Heitkamp’s slight advantage in this poll is her wide 44.7%-22.4% lead among Independent voters.
North Dakotan voters approve of the Republican tax reform law 37%-32%. Voters also indicate that they are more likely to support a candidate for Senate that supports the law by a 35%-29% margin. Trump’s immigration reform plans are also more popular in North Dakota than they are nationwide. Voters support Trump’s immigration reform plans in North Dakota by a 43%-39% margin.
While a majority of North Dakota voters still likely oppose abortion at a personal level and consider themselves to be “pro-life”, Gravis Marketing finds that voters oppose a full abortion ban 45%-33%. Voters also indicate that they support laws that would prevent discrimination in housing, healthcare and employment against LGBTQ individuals by a wide 64%-16% margin. These numbers could help explain Heitkamp’s support in this heavily Republican state. While voters are fairly conservative here, they are willing to support the occasional moderate Democrat for offices outside of the Presidency.
North Dakota Poll Results