Today, Gravis Marketing has released its fifth tracking poll of the battleground state of Florida. Florida looks like it will be a key state in Democratic chances of taking back the Senate. The state also presents Democrats with the opportunity to elect a Democratic Governor for the first time since Lawton Chiles in 1994
For the first time this cycle, Gravis Marketing has found Donald Trump’s approval rating above water with Florida voters. Trump has a 49% approval rating compared to a 47% disapproval. Other approval numbers in Florida include 47%-41% for Nelson, 42%-48% for Rubio and 51%-40% for Scott. The approval rating edge does not translate into a horse race lead for Scott who trails Nelson 47%-43%. Among independent voters, Nelson leads 42%-37%. Scott leads 74%-16% over Rocky de la Fuente in the Republican primary.
Ron DeSantis has bounced back into a 35%-29% lead after trailing 29%-19% in the previous poll. “DeSantis’ T.V. advertising is clearly working,” said Gravis Marketing managing partner, Doug Kaplan. “Politics is about momentum. Putnam is the establishment candidate, and once the establishment candidate loses the lead it’s hard to regain.”
On the Democratic side, Gwen Graham has claimed the lead at 27%. Businessman Jeff Greene makes his first appearance at 18%. Philip Levine is at 17% and Andrew Gillum has fallen to fourth place at 10%. Kaplan remarks, “The Democratic primary is still anyone’s to win. I mentioned last month that Greene could be the person to watch. You have seen him break through to make this a four-person race.”
Moving to the general election, the Republican field has an edge. Putnam leads Graham (40%-39%), Levine (43%-38%), Gillum (41%-35%) and Greene (41%-39%). DeSantis leads Gillum (39%-36%), Levine (40%-38%), but ties Greene (39%-39%) and trails Graham (42%-38%).
In the race for Chief Financial Officer, Republican Jimmy Patronis holds a slight 34%-33% edge over Democrat Jeremy Ring.
Voters say they are less likely to vote for a candidate that supports Nancy Pelosi (49%-21%) and less likely to support a candidate who would support impeaching Donald Trump (43%-41%). The Tax Reform Bill has a 40%-37% approval rating.
Voters oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion 46%-32%. That margin narrows to 42%-39% when voters are asked about a 20-week abortion ban.
Voters support Trump’s actions on the Iranian Nuclear Agreement 42%-40% and support a border wall 45%-44%. Floridians believe that the Mueller investigation is justified by a narrow 45%-44% margin. Mueller has a 45%-36% approval rating in Florida. This poll was conducted the day of the recent Mueller indictments as well as the following day.
By a wide 52%-35% margin, voters believe that Donald Trump should have the opportunity to appoint Justice Kennedy’s replacement. Voters broadly feel that Kavanaugh is qualified to serve on the court by a 48%-26% margin. There is a closer divide on whether support for Kavanaugh would affect support for a Senate candidate. 39% say they would be more likely to support a candidate and 31% say less likely.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 1,840 likely voters was conducted July 13th through July 14nd and has a margin of error of ±2.3%. The Democratic primary subsample is among 1,540 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±2.5%. The Republican primary subsample is among 905 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±3.3%. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users and interactive voice responses (IVR). This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Questions can be direction to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.