Gravis Marketing has released their second poll of the cycle in Montana. The previous Gravis poll in this state that Trump carried by 20 points was in June. While Tester still holds the edge in the race, the numbers have overall shifted towards the Republican party. The most striking difference is the shift in approval ratings. President Donald Trump has moved from a narrow 50%-47% approval split to 56%-39%. Tester’s approval rating has fallen from 54%-42% to 46%-47%. Daines has improved from 41%-43% to 54%-30% and Bullock has fallen from 56%-35% to 47%-39%. The fairly uniform drop in approval numbers for all four officials could indicate some statistical noise happening between the two samples.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester currently holds a 49%-45% edge over Republican Matt Rosendale. The margin narrows to 49%-47% when “leaners” are included. Tester beats out Rosendale in holding his own party (92%-5% in favor of Tester among Democrats and 85%-11% in favor of Rosendale among Republicans) as well as holding a strong 55%-34% lead among independents. There is also a significant gender gap with Tester leading among women 55%-37% and Rosendale leading among me 53%-42%.
The most significant shift since June is in the House race where Gianforte has gone from a 6-point deficit to a 51%-42% lead over Democratic challenger Kathleen Williams. That lead expands to 54%-42% with “leaners” added. Gianforte takes 11% of Tester voters while Williams takes only 4% of Rosendale voters.
Likely voters in Montana widely prefer a candidate that won’t support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker (53%-14%) and who won’t support impeaching President Trump (52%-33%). The Mueller investigation is seen as politically motivated by a wide 54%-31% margin and Mueller’s job performance is under water at 33%-39%. The mainstream media gets particularly poor numbers in Montana with 27% approving and 54% disapproving. Voters want the Senate to consider Kavanaugh’s nomination by a 53%-27% margin and believe that Kavanaugh is qualified by a similar 56%-24%. Voters in Montana are more likely to support a candidate for Senate who would confirm Kavanaugh by a 47%-28% margin.
On various issues, Montana voters demonstrate how conservative the state is. Voter support tax reform (41%-33%), support same-sex marriage (46%-40%), oppose both a complete abortion ban (49%-35%) and a 20-week ban (47%-33%), support an anti-discrimination law protecting LGBTQ individuals (59%-25%), support withdrawing from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement (52%-28%) and support a border wall (54%-37%).
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 710 likely voters was conducted September 19th through September 22th and has a margin of error of ±3.7%. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users and interactive voice responses (IVR). This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be direction to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan. Montana Poll