The former Vice President leads Trump 47 percent to 45 percent in Florida with a 4 percent margin of error. Biden, who has been beset by bad press recently, should receive a bump with news of this poll.
Since filing to run for President, Biden has been the steadiest candidate in the field of many Democrats. For the other candidates in the race, the news isn’t all bad. Upstart candidate Pete Buttigieg is behind Trump by four percentage points, Bernie Sanders trails the President by five and Elizabeth Warren is down by nine.
Biden will likely be the choice for Florida’s voters as Democrats in the state tend to be pragmatic. He leads among African Americans and Hispanics in Mason Dixon’s poll.
But the elephant in the room for Democrats is President Donald Trump. If this poll’s results continue to trend ahead of Florida’s Presidential Preference Primary in March, Trump’s prospects of winning the state remain high.
Republicans always have high turnout in the state, they lead Democrats in new voter registration numbers, and Trump facing a potential removal from office by the United States Senate will likely embolden many of his voters next year.
Can Biden or any other Democrat beat Trump voters in 2020? If polls are to be believed, it’s unlikely.
Trump is still strong with white voters and men, and if 2016 is to serve as a judge, white women will show up for Trump again this year.
Additionally, Democrats have always held strongholds with minority voters. That won’t change in 2020 but if Trump is able to pull 2-3 percent minority votes away from Biden or the Democratic nominee, Trump is likely to hold on to the White House for another four years.