Today's date is December 5, 2022

New Poll in Florida’s 15th Congressional District Shows a Tight Race within the Margin of Error


Lakeland, FL —  Democrat Alan Cohn is statistically tied with Republican Scott Franklin, down by 3 points (39% to 42%, with 19% undecided) in a DCCC Analytics survey of 390 likely November voters conducted in Florida’s 15th Congressional District. This new result follows the Cohn campaign’s internal poll released back in mid-September showing them down 7 points.

Cohn already holds a commanding lead over Franklin among voters of color (52% to 22%, with 26% undecided) and is positioned well with voters under 30 years of age (49% to 27%, with 24% undecided), and is winning among voters familiar with both congressional candidates (56% to 46%). This lead will continue to grow as voters in the district learn more about Cohn’s career as an independent journalist who understands the lives of hard-working Floridians and has held corrupt politicians accountable, regardless of their party. Crucially, Cohn is within striking distance of Franklin among registered NPA voters (30% to 40%, with 30% undecided) and seniors (37% to 47%, with 15% undecided), a margin that will decrease even more as voters learn how Scott Franklin will cut their Social Security and Medicare to continue giving away tax breaks to big corporations and millionaires like himself.

In this poll, Joe Biden is statistically tied with Donald Trump, trailing him by just 1 point (45% to 46%) and a generic Democrat is within the margin of error of a Republican candidate (44% to 49%). For comparison, Hillary Clinton lost this district by a 10-point margin (42.7% to 52.7%) and in 2018 Kristen Carlson narrowly lost this district to Ross Spano (47% to 53%).

This survey of 390 likely November 2020 voters was conducted from September 30th-Oct 4th by the DCCC Analytics department. This poll was conducted through a standard blend of live and automated calls to landlines and cellphones. The margin of error for any one data point of the total sample is +/-5.0 points, and larger for sub-groups within the sample.

A link to the polling memo is here.

This latest news caps off a week of surging momentum from Cohn’s campaign where he recently announced a record-shattering fundraising total in Q3, raising $1,050,000, more money than any other candidate, Republican or Democrat has ever raised in the history of Florida’s 15th Congressional District. The campaign’s surging momentum sets up this district, an open seat in the Tampa suburbs with only ~1,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, to be one of the most competitive districts in the country. It is currently the top pick up target for Democrats in the state by a wide margin.

This announcement follows increased national attention on the race with Alan appearing on Morning Joe two weeks ago, getting named to the DCCC’s highly selective Red to Blue program , earning endorsements from President Obama and Vice President Biden, and the slew of articles in the Tampa Bay TimesFox News, and Florida Politics about how this race could help determine the winner of the presidential election if 270 electoral votes can’t be certified for any candidate.


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