Political Climate Forecast for Florida in 2018 looks positive for John Morgan, Negative for Gay Conversion Therapy, and uncertain on the future of American involvement in Syria

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The political climate across the country has been in an almost constant state of change over the past year. Rather than political interest and opinion dying off following the November election, the election of Donald Trump has inspired an upsurge in public opinion, keeping political unrest and concerns regarding approval ratings as front page news. In Florida, the highly anticipated gubernatorial race of 2018 is the first place that discontented voters are directing their attention, as the public and positive relationship between Rick Scott and Donald Trump has left many Florida voters excited for the upcoming election.

With the 2018 election just around the corner, Florida Democrats are already looking to potential gubernatorial candidates, taking into consideration public names and past candidates in determining who is likely to have the best success in taking the Governor seat, something that the blue party hasn’t achieved since Lawton Chiles.

The most recent Orlando Political Observer-Gravis Marketing  Democratic polling is putting one name front and center regarding speculation for the gubernatorial race: John Morgan. The “people’s lawyer” has become involved in state policies in recent years, and has been the focus of a lot of attention thanks to pointed radio advertisements and billboard campaigns that have guaranteed that just about every Floridian will recognize his name. Current polling puts John Morgan at 14% favorability among Florida democrats, putting him as the current front runner ahead of Gillum, at 13% favorability, and Graham, polling in at 11% favorability. This most recent poll pointedly excludes the presence of Patrick Murphy, something that seems to improve the odds pointed towards John Morgan’s potential campaign. Just last week the polling looked very different for Morgan. With Murphy’s name on the ballot, the favorability ratings last week went to Murphy at 24%, with Gillum coming in at 23%, right up top, and John Morgan coming in a good bit lower at 9%. Removing Murphy’s name creates a rather huge shift in the potential voting patterns. The numbers are close and the election is far enough away for these numbers to be considered anything more than speculation, but this does indicate that there is a presence of the type of positive interest necessary to encourage any exploratory campaigns.

Word regarding the current Governor and his potential interest in the Senate seat currently held by incumbent Senator Bill Nelson is looking positive for Nelson. The latest polls indicate that Nelson has a large lead over Scott in favorability, with 56% of potential voters favoring Nelson over Scott in a two-way race and another 16% being uncertain, indicating a large preference for an unnamed non-Rick Scott candidate.

Current preferences for potential 2018 candidates are likely a reflection of major current issues. There is a lot of ambiguity regarding the right course of action in regards to military intervention in Syria, and the way that the situation overseas plays out over the coming months and year will likely play a large role in the 2018 election. Currently, approximately 45% of Florida voters approve of bombing Syria while an even smaller percentage, approximately 37%, disapprove. There is a lot of uncertainty on this topic, with almost one-fifth of the state voting population still uncertain if bombing is the best solution for America’s intervention strategy.

 

 

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,243 registered voters across Florida. The poll was conducted from April 4th through the 10th and has a margin of error of ±2.8%. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The poll was conducted using interactive voice responses and online panels of cell phone users, with the results weighted by voting patterns.

5) If the Democratic Primary election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Andrew Gillum, Gwen Graham, John Morgan, Jeff Greene, and Philip Levine, who would you vote for?
This week’s results

Last week’s results other is referring to Patrick Murphy  Who recently ran for Senate.  In this week’s poll we removed Murphy. 




2) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump?




3) Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Scott’s job performance?

4) What is your party affiliation?




6) If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Rick Scott, who would you vote for?




7) Do you approve of President Trump’s decision to bomb Syrian military bases recently?
Interactive voice respondents only

8) Do you think that gay conversion therapy aimed at changing a person’s sexual orientation should be legal or illegal for minors in Florida?




The following questions are for demographic purposes:
9) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

10) What race do you identify yourself as?

11) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

12) What is the highest level of education have you completed?




13) How old are you?

14) What is your gender?

 




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About Author

Doug is a national pollster, political consultant, and advertising expert. Doug Kaplan is President and Founder of Gravis Marketing and Orlandopolitics.com, The Orlando Political Observer. Doug Kaplan can be reached at Doug@orlandopolitics.com