Alabama Poll Results Gravis Marketing

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“Former U.S. attorney G. Douglas Jones, a Democrat, holds a slim lead over his GOP challenger and two-time state chief justice Roy S. Moore with 48 percent to Moore’s 44 percent, according to the Big League-Gravis poll conducted Dec. 1 through Dec. 3 with 1,276 voters likely to vote in Alabama’s Dec. 12 special Senate election. Big League Reports 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                             DECEMBER 3, 2017

INTERVIEWS: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Questions concerning methodology can be sent to doug@gravismarketing.com.

Gravis Marketing a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,276 likely voters across Alabama.  The poll was conducted from December 1st through the 3rd and has a margin of error of ±2.7%.  The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding.  The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  The results are weighted by voting demographics.

Q1     How likely are you to vote in the runoff election for US Senate to be held on December 12?

Very likely………………………………………72%

Likely…………………………………….………….18%

Somewhat likely………………………………..….10%

Q2     Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

Strongly approve………………………………40%

Somewhat approve…………………….………….11%

Somewhat disapprove……………………..……….5%

Strongly disapprove……………………………….40%

Uncertain…………………………………………….4%

Q3     Will you vote for a Democrat or Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018?

Democrat………………………………………………….. 41%

Republican………………..…………..……..…48%

Uncertain………………………….……….………11%

Q4     How favorable or unfavorable are you toward Donald Trump?

Very favorable…………………………………40%

Somewhat favorable…………….…….………….12%

Uncertain……………………..……………….…….3%

Somewhat unfavorable……….…………………….6%

Very unfavorable………………….……………….39%

Q5     How favorable or unfavorable are you toward Roy Moore?

Very favorable…………………………………27%

Somewhat favorable…………….…….………….15%

Uncertain……………………..……………….…….7%

Somewhat unfavorable……….…………………….6%

Very unfavorable………………….……………….45%

Q6     How favorable or unfavorable are you toward Doug Jones?

Very favorable…………………………………32%

Somewhat favorable…………….…….………….14%

Uncertain……………………..…..….……….…….9%

Somewhat unfavorable……….…………………….7%

Very unfavorable………………….……………….39%

Q7     Who did you vote for in the primary for US Senate?

Republican Roy Moore……………………………….. 30% Democrat Doug Jones……………………………. 26%

Republican Luther Strange………………………….. 19%

Didn’t vote………………………………………………… 15%

Republican Mo Brooks…………………………………. 4%

Republican Trip Pittman………………………………. 1%

Another Democrat……………………………………….. 3%

Democrat Robert Kennedy……………………………. 1%

Another Republican……………………………………… 1%

Q8     If the election for US Senate were held today for whom would you vote?

Republican Roy Moore……………………………….. 44% Democrat Doug Jones……………………………. 48%

Uncertain…………………………………………………… 8%

 

 

Q9     If you are undecided, which candidate do you most lean toward?

Republican Roy Moore……………………………….. 32% Democrat Doug Jones……………………………. 17%

Uncertain…………………………………………………. 51%

Q8+Q9 Voting for or leaning towards

Republican Roy Moore……………………………….. 46% Democrat Doug Jones……………………………. 49%

                 Uncertain……………………………………………………. 4%

Q10   Have you heard or read any news about sexual assault accusations against Roy Moore recently?

Yes…………………………………………………………… 94% No…….…………………………………………………… 6%

Q11   How did what you heard or read about these accusations impact your likelihood to vote for Roy Moore?

More likely………………………………………………… 23%

No impact on likelihood to vote…………….……48%

Less likely to vote……………………………………….. 30%

Q12   Do you believe these accusations about Roy Moore?

Yes…………………………………………………………… 42% No…….…………………………………………………. 34%

Uncertain……………………………..……….24%

Q13   Do you believe the Washington Post did the right thing in publishing these accusations?

Yes…………………………………………………………… 49% No…….…………………………………………………. 34%

Uncertain……………………………..……….17%

Q14   Who do you think is more likely telling the truth?

Four Women……………………………………………… 44% Republican Roy Moore…….…………………….. 32%

Uncertain……………………………..……….24%

Q15   Do you trust Roy Moore?

Yes…………………………………………………………… 37% No…….…………………………………………………. 47%

Uncertain……………………………..……….15%

Q16   What is your party affiliation?

Democrat………………………………………………….. 33% Independent or in Another Party…………………. 19%

Republican……………………………………..48%

Q17   Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

No……………………………………………………………. 98% Yes………………………………………………………… 2%

Q18   What race do you identify yourself as?

White/Caucasian……………………………………….. 73% African-American……………………………………. 22%

Hispanic………………………………………………….. 2%

Asian………………………………………………………. 1%

Other/No Affiliation………………………………….. 1%

Q19   Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Catholic……………………………………………………… 6% Other/No Affiliation…………………………………… 23%

Protestant/Other Non-Denom. Christian………. 49%

Jewish………………………………………………………. 1%

Evangelical Christian………………………………… 21%

Muslim……………………………………………………… 1%

Q20   What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Some High School/No Diploma……………………… 3% High School Graduate……………………………… 22%

Some College………………………………………….. 31%

Bachelor’s Degree…………………………………… 30%

Post Graduate…………………………………………. 14%

 

 

 

Q21   What is your annual household income?

Under $30,000…………………………………………… 20% $30,000 to $50,000……………………………….. 20%

$50,000 to $100,000………………………………. 29%

$100,000 to $150,000……………………………. 14%

Over $150,000…………………………………….. 7%

Uncertain…………………………………………………. 11%

Q22   What is your age group?

18-29……………………………………………………….. 12% 30-49……………………………………………………….. 31%

50-64…………………………………………..32%

Over 65……………………………..………………25%

Q23   What is your gender?

Male………………………………………………………… 48% Female………………………………………………….. 52%

 

 

GM_Release_AL_12032017 v2 Crosstabs – Table Format – ALABAMA – DECEMBER 4 2017GM_Release_AL_12032017 v2

“With less than two weeks left before the special election, the race is tight and going to pivot on which direction the Luther Strange voters go,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that executed the poll. The poll carries a 2.7 percent margin of error.

Sen. Luther J. Strange III (R.-Ala.)  lost the Sept. 26 primary runoff to Moore with Strange securing 218,066 votes to Moore’s 262,204 votes.

“Who are the voters, who are going to vote against Moore twice?” Kaplan asked.

In the Aug. 15 Democratic primary, Jones secured 109,105 votes of the 165,006 votes cast, if all the Democrats vote for Jones, Moore needs to hold on to 97,199 Strange voters, or 45 percent of the Strange voters, if the turnout in this off-cycle winter election matches the turnout from the August contest for the Democrats and the September contest for the Republicans.

In the Nov. 14 Big League-Gravis poll, 64 percent of the Republicans who voted for Strange, roughly 140,000, said they would support Moore two days after the article in The Washington Post and 22 percent said they would vote for Jones.

Kaplan said Jones is getting 93 percent of Democrats, while Moore only gets 76 percent of Republicans.

Jones is also winning with self-identified Independents by more than 25 percent,” he said.

“This is third of four polls we are conducting in Alabama and another key is the undecided vote,” he said.

“When we saw the shift for Jones in the last poll, there was a movement of voters saying they were undecided, instead of coming out for Jones,” he said.

“In this poll, either Jones is winning in the poll or people are being dishonest, because they don’t want to admit that they are actually voting for Moore.”

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Doug is a national pollster, political consultant, and advertising expert. Doug Kaplan is President and Founder of Gravis Marketing and Orlandopolitics.com, The Orlando Political Observer. Doug Kaplan can be reached at Doug@orlandopolitics.com

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  1. Pingback: Roy Moore, Doug Jones each hold leads in new Senate polls - Ryan Guillory

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