Gravis Marketing Tennessee poll

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With the December 12th Alabama Special Election, Democrats have won their first Senate seat in Alabama since 1992.  Richard Shelby switched party affiliation to Republican following the 1994 mid-term elections.  The balance of the United States Senate will be 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats and 2 Independents that caucus with the Democrats giving an effective 51-49 Republican Senate majority.  Before Alabama, the Senate was generally seen to be out of reach for Democrats.  Democrats are defending 26 seats to the Republicans’ 8.

As 2017 wraps up, attention now turns to 2018 and states like Tennessee.  Bob Corker’s announcement to retire and not seek a third term has left an open seat.  Democrats were able to convince former Governor Phil Bredesen to join the race.  Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing said, “Bredesen, a former Governor, is a formidable candidate.”  While Tennessee has become even more Republican since Bredesen won his second term in 2006 by 38.86%, he won every one of Tennessee’s 95 counties.  His worst performing county was Hancock, where he won by 4.23%.  For comparison, Donald Trump carried Hancock county by a wide 68.18% margin.  In 2006, Bob Corker won Hancock county by 21.16%.

Moving over to the Republican side, “Blackburn is the favorite to win” says Doug Kaplan, President of Gravis Marketing  “Our poll found that Peyton Manning would perform best for the GOP against Bredesen.  Manning, however, is not likely to join the race.”

Bredesen holds a slim 42%-40% lead over Marsha Blackburn.  His lead currently rests on Democrats solidifying their support behind him 87%-4%, while Republicans are only behind Blackburn by a 68%-16% margin with about twice as many undecideds as there are on the Democratic side. Independents back Bredesen by a 40%-30% split.  Manning, however, holds a 44%-39% lead over Bredesen.  Democrats maintain similar support for Bredesen against Manning, but Republicans coalesce behind Manning 73%-16%, and Independents flip to Manning 45%-23%.  Kaplan asks, “Will the GOP push Manning after seeing these results?”

There is also an open gubernatorial election in Tennessee.  Democratic candidates include Nashville Mayor Karl Dean and State House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh.  Republicans have a larger primary field including former Commissioner Randy Boyd, former State Senator Mae Beavers, State House Speaker Beth Harwell and Congresswoman Diane Black.   Kaplan said, “The best performing Democrat is Karl Dean.  The best performing Republican is Diane Black.”  The only matchup tested in the gubernatorial race that gave the Democrat a lead was Karl Dean and Mae Beavers. Unsurprisingly, with lower profile candidates running for Governor, there are far more undecided voters than there are for the Senate race.

Approval ratings in the state show Republicans above water with outgoing Governor Bill Haslam at 39%-32%.  Donald Trump is considerably more popular in Tennessee than he is nationwide with a 52%-41% approval split.

OR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DECEMBER 12, 2017

INTERVIEWS: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Questions concerning methodology can be sent to doug@gravismarketing.com.

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 563 registered voters in the state of Tennessee. The poll was conducted from December 11th through the 12th and has a margin of error of ±4.1%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by voting demographics.

Q1 Are you registered to vote in the State of Tennessee?

Yes……………………………..…..…………100%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?

Approve………………………….…………52%

Disapprove……………….…………….………….41%

Uncertain…………………………………………….7%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill Haslam’s Job Performance?

Approve………………………….……………39%

Disapprove……………….…………….………….32%

Uncertain…………………………….…………….29%

Q4 If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Phil Bredesen, who would you vote for?

Marsha Blackburn………..…………………40%

Phil Bredesen…………………….…….………….42%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….18%

Q5 If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Stephen Fincher and Democrat Phil Bredesen, who would you vote for?

Stephen Fincher………..…………………38%

Phil Bredesen…………………….…….………….42%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….20%

Q6 If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Peyton Manning and Democrat Phil Bredesen, who would you vote for?

Peyton Manning……………..…………………44%

Phil Bredesen…………………….…….………….39%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….17%

Q7 If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Diane Black and Democrat Karl Dean, who would you vote for?

Diane Black………..………..…………………40%

Karl Dean………………..……….…….………….31%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….28%

Q8 If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Beth Harwell and Democrat Karl Dean, who would you vote for?

Beth Harwell………..……..…………………38%

Karl Dean………………..……….…….………….33%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….29%

Q9 If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Mae Beavers and Democrat Karl Dean, who would you vote for?

Mae Beavers………..……..…………………32%

Karl Dean………………..……….…….………….37%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….32%

Q10 If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Randy Boyd and Democrat Karl Dean, who would you vote for?

Randy Boyd………..………...…………………38%

Karl Dean………………..……….…….………….35%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….28%

Q11 If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Diane Black and Democrat Craig Fitzhugh, who would you vote for?

Craig Fitzhugh………..………………………27%

Diane Black………………..……….….………….42%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….31%

Q12 If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Beth Harwell and Democrat Craig Fitzhugh, who would you vote for?

Craig Fitzhugh………..…………………………24%

Beth Harwell………………..…….….………….44%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….32%

Q13 If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Mae Beavers and Democrat Craig Fitzhugh, who would you vote for?

Craig Fitzhugh………..…………………………29%

Mae Beavers………………..……….….………….36%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….34%

Q14 If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Randy Boyd and Democrat Craig Fitzhugh, who would you vote for?

Craig Fitzhugh………..…………………………30%

Randy Boyd ………………..……….….………….39%

Uncertain…………………………………….…….31%

Q15 In the 2016 Presidential election whom did you vote for?

Donald Trump……………………..……….….…….. 58% Hillary Clinton…….………………….…….….….... 36%

Gary Johnson………………..………………….2%

Jill Stein ……………………………..……….1%

Didn’t vote ………………………..……….3%

Q16 What is your party affiliation?

Democrat……….…………………….…….………….. 31% Independent or in Another Party……………….... 28%

Republican……………………………………..40%

Q17 What is your political ideology?

Very Conservative…………………..……….….…….. 30% Somewhat Conservative…….……….…….….….... 31%

Moderate……………………………..……….22%

Somewhat Liberal…………………..……….….…….. 10% Very Liberal…….…..………………..…..…….….….... 7%

Q18 Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

No………..…………………………….……….….…….. 98% Yes……………………………………….………….….... 2%

Q19 What race do you identify yourself as?

White/Caucasian………………….……….….…….. 81% African-American…………………….…….….….... 14%

Hispanic…………………….……..…………….….... 2%

Q20 Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Catholic……………………………………….………….. 5% Other/No Affiliation…….……………..…….….….... 15%

Asian…………………….……………………….….….... 1%

Other/No Affiliation………….…….…….….….... 2%

Protestant/Other Non-Denom. Christian…….... 28%

Jewish…….……………..………………………..….….... 1%

Evangelical Christian…….…………………….….... 52%

Muslim…….……………..……………………….….….... 0%

Q21 What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Some High School/No Diploma………………… 5% High School Graduate…………………….….….... 28%

Some College…………………….……..…………….. 33%

Bachelor’s Degree………………………….….….... 24%

Post Graduate………….…….……..……..….... 10%

Q22 What is your age group?

18-29……….………………………………..………….. 15% 30-49………..……..…………………….…….….….... 31%

50-64…………………………………………..34%

Over 65……………………………..………………20%

Q23 What is your gender?

Male………..………………………………….….…….. 48% Female…………….…………………….…….….….... 52%

 

 

 

 

 

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