Just over a month after being the first public pollster to show Republican Mike Braun with a lead in the Republican primary, Gravis Marketing has released a follow-up poll for the state of Indiana. The poll was conducted May 10th through the 15th among registered voters. Due to restrictions prohibiting robocalling in Indiana, the poll was conducted exclusively by online panel. The poll has a Margin of error of ±4.9%.
The current poll finds the Indiana Senate race well within the margin of error with Mike Braun at 45% and incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly at 44%. With leaners, the margin is Braun at 47% and Donnelly at 46%. Gravis Marketing did not ballot test Mike Braun against Joe Donnelly in the April poll. The margin of error signifies that Donnelly’s support could range between 39%-49% and Braun support could range between 41% and 50% at a 95% confidence level. With most of the range for both candidates overlapping, the race is well within the margin of error. Both candidates are pulling 83% of their own party, but Donnelly holds a 10% lead among independents where 26% are still undecided.
In the April poll, Trump was at a 47%-48% approval split and now sits even at 47%-47%. Other approval spread changes include junior Senator Todd Young going from 30%-31% to 36%-34% and Governor Eric Holcomb moving from 52%-28% to 54%-30%. Donnelly lost a couple net points shifting from 37%-32% to 41%-40%.
A large shift came in the generic congressional ballot where Democrats improved from being down by 12% (49%-37%) to a narrower 3% deficit (44%-41%). Voters indicating that they are “uncertain” of their choice remains at 14%. Republican Connie Lawson is also pulling ahead in the Secretary of State race. She now leads Democrat Jim Harper 33%-23%. This is double the margin from April when Lawson was ahead 29%-24%. Libertarian Mark Rutherford was tested this time and pulled 10%, but was not tested in April. Green Party candidate George Wolfe pulled 4% this time down from 8% in April.
Voters remain conservative in Indiana. Voters approve of the Tax Reform Law 43%-32% and support pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) by a narrower 41%-35% clip. Voters are split 40%-40% on President Trump’s actions regarding tariffs and trade policy. While voters narrowly oppose a complete ban on abortion in Indiana (43%-41%), there is majority support for a twenty-week abortion ban (51%-31%). https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Indiana_Senate_May_17_2018.pdf