On Tuesday, March 13th, voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District will go to the polls in what has become the highest profile special election since Doug Jones beat Roy Moore in December. Gravis Marketing has released their third and final poll in this race. The Likely voter poll, conducted March 1st-5th, shows the race continuing to tighten into a toss-up. The poll uses the same demographic model as the previous two Gravis Marketing polls of the race.
The State Representative Rick Saccone now leads former assistant U.S. Attorney Connor Lamb 45%-42%. The previous poll in February had Saccone up 45%-40%, and the first poll in January showed Saccone up 46%-34%. The race has undeniably tightened as Saccone’s support has been frozen in the 45%-46% range while Lamb’s support has climbed from 34% to 42%. While Saccone remains the favorite to win this race, there is a clear path to victory for Lamb. 13% of likely voters remain undecided.
Saccone is currently pulling 4% of Clinton voters while Lamb is taking 13.1% of Trump voters. Saccone, however, takes 16% of Democrat compared to Lamb’s 12.3% of Republicans. Lamb holds a 46%-27% lead over independent voters.
Donald Trump’s approval rating has taken a slight hit in the district over the three polls showing only a slight trend downward from 54%-39% in January to 49%-42% in the first week of March. Governor Wolf has remained stable and currently sits at 33%-47% in the district. Senator Casey’s numbers have also remained static and are currently at 33%-38%.
Gravis Marketing has also been tracking voter opinion on a variety of issues. One issue measured is the popularity of the tax reform bill that was signed into law by President Trump. The law currently has a 48%-36% rating in the district. Voters also oppose a 20-week abortion ban 32%-47% and a complete ban on abortions by a 34%-44% split. Voters support legalizing recreational marijuana 51%-41%.
Voters indicate they would be unwilling to support a candidate who had been accused of sexual misconduct by a wide 75%-25% margin. Republicans, however, are more likely to say they could support such a candidate (say they couldn’t support 65%-35%) than Democrats (say they couldn’t support 87%-13%). This seat became vacant after Republican Congressman Tim Murphy resigned while facing allegations that he had encouraged a woman (with whom he had an extramarital affair with) to have an abortion.
Poll Results PA 18 (March 5, 2018) v2 – NEW FORMAT