A state that has flown mostly under the 2018 radar thus far has now been polled by Gravis Marketing. The state of Oregon will see its third Gubernatorial election over the past six years. Kate Brown took office in 2015 after the resignation of John Kitzhaber. Brown went on to win a Gubernatorial special election in 2016 by 7.16%, 3.81% behind Hillary Clinton’s margin. In 2018, Brown faces her first election for a full four-year term.
Gravis finds Brown in a 45%-45% tie with Republican nominee, Knute Buehler. While both candidates are holding their own party (Brown 81%-10% among Democrats and Buehler up 86%-9% among Republicans), Buehler holds a 50%-38% lead among independents who make up 44% of the sample. The gender split is Brown winning women 48%-41% and Buehler winning men 49%-43%.
Job approval numbers in the poll:
- Trump: 43%-53%
- Wyden: 50%-33%
- Merkley: 44%-38%
- Brown: 45%-47%
In the race for Congress, Democrats hold a 49%-37% edge in Oregon. This represents a lurch to the right from the 53.7%-38.2% Congressional popular voter in 2016 for Oregon. These numbers come in start contrast to the national average which, according to Real Clear Politics, 7.7% in favor of Democrats. Without more data, it is difficult to know whether this is just statistical noise or if Oregon is really going to vote 12 points to the right of the nation in 2018 relative to 2016 performance.
While 47% say they are less likely to support a congressional candidate who would support Nancy Pelosi (compared to 19% who are more likely), voters are closely split over support for impeaching Trump influencing their vote (44% less likely compared to 43% more likely).
The rest of the Gravis Marketing poll is more of a mixed bag for Republicans. Voters oppose the tax reform bill 43%-33%, a ban on abortion 53%-32%, a 20-week ban on abortion 46%-34%, withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal 48%-34% and a border wall 51%-41%. Voters are closely divided on repealing Oregon’s Sanctuary State Law 39% in support of repeal and 38% opposed.
On the Russia investigation, Oregon voters feel the investigation is justified by a 49%-41% margin and approve of Robert Mueller’s job performance 43%-38%.
Voters feel that the Senate should consider Brett Kavanaugh to fill the vacancy of Justice Kennedy 44%-39%. 47% feel that Kavanaugh is qualified to be a justice on the Supreme Court compared to 29% who feel he is unqualified. 38% would be less likely to support a candidate for Senate who would vote to confirm Kavanaugh and 34% would be more likely. There is no election for United States Senate in Oregon this year. Full Report https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Oregon_July_20_2018.pdf
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 770 likely voters was conducted July 16th through July 17nd and has a margin of error of ±3.5%. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users and interactive voice responses (IVR). This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Questions can be direction to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.