Today's date is July 5, 2020

New Poll: Joel Greenberg Best Chance To Beat Stephanie Murphy CD7 In 2020

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When presented with a list of accomplishments for Greenberg in his time as Seminole County Tax Collector, 75% of voters at least “somewhat agree” that he has satisfied his campaign promise of creating a smarter, faster and more efficient government. Accomplishments mentioned are building a new website with a 24/7 customer service chatbot, opened three new branch offices including a drive-through service, became the only tax collector’s office in the state to be open on a Saturday, increased online transactions by 70% and reduced wait times by 50%. Greenberg also receives a 61%-16% approval rating. When asked about whether voters have visited the Seminole County Tax Collector’s office, 36% say they have visited
more than once and 17% say that they have visited once. Kaplan notes that “Greenberg will clearly win the Republican primary and has a great shot in the general election. Residents are happy with what he has accomplished as Tax Collector.” Among those who have visited the Seminole County Tax collector’s office more than once, Greenberg leads Murphy 48%-35%.

Two ballot questions were asked in this poll. The first matched Murphy up against Republicans Greenberg, Valentin and Goble on the same ballot. Murphy as the only Democrat received 43% with only Joel Greenberg joining her in double digits at 20%. The second ballot question was asked after various issue questions and an explanation of some of Greenberg’s accomplishments while in office to gauge whether there is room for Greenberg to grow. In the second question between just Greenberg and Murphy, Murphy’s lead over Greenberg is well within the margin of error at 43%-42%. Greenberg and Murphy are both taking 11% of the other party’s voters while Greenberg leads Murphy 44%-39% among independent voters. 62% of the sample was from Seminole county where Greenberg serves as Tax Collector and 38% was from Orange County. Greenberg leads Murphy in Seminole County 45%-40% while Murphy leads 46%-38% in Orange County.

In the district, President Trump has a 49%-48% approval spread compared to Murphy’s 46%-35%. Voters in the district are split on impeachment with 47% approving and 46% disapproving. 45% say they are less likely to vote for Murphy because of her vote to impeach President Trump, while 39% say that vote makes them more likely to support her. Greenberg receives 82% among those who say they are less likely to support Murphy because of her vote, while Murphy takes 83% of those who indicated that they are more likely to support her. Among those uncertain, on the effect of Murphy’s vote to impeach Trump, 43% support Murphy while 18% support Greenberg. There are 39% of those who are uncertain about the effect of Murphy’s vote to impeach and their vote for or against her who say they are also undecided on their vote between Greenberg and Murphy.

Trump was also tested against a generic Democratic nominee and trails 45%-43% against an unnamed Democrat. 89% of voters who said they would support Donald Trump over the democratic nominee also said they would vote for Greenberg over Murphy. Murphy receives an identical 89% of those who say they would back the Democratic nominee. Among those uncertain about the Congressional race, Trump trails 35%-23% with 42% undecided.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 813 registered voters in Florida’s 7th Congressional District was conducted January 2nd through the 3rd and has a margin of error of ±3.4%. The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was paid for by Douglas J Kaplan. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Seminole & Orange Counties CD 7 (January 4, 2020) v3

CROSSTABS – v3

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About Author

Doug is a national pollster, political consultant, and advertising expert. Doug Kaplan is President and Founder of Gravis Marketing and Orlandopolitics.com, The Orlando Political Observer. Doug Kaplan can be reached at Doug@orlandopolitics.com

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